The answer first
The architecture and demand evidence remain credible. The corrected company specific method values gross profit, reinvestment, concentration, financing and dilution together. Even the bull target is below the reference price.
Original weighted value, clearly labeled historical: $179.10. Revised active value: $93.82.
Company specific valuation method
Primary: probability weighted 2028 enterprise value to consolidated gross profit. Target equals gross profit times scenario multiple, plus net cash, divided by diluted shares.
Cross checks: implied EV to revenue, normalized enterprise EBITA, and reverse FCF DCF. They are not averaged.
EV to revenue is not primary because revenue quality changes with margins, warrants, mix and deployment capital. A direct DCF is terminal heavy. A hardware and cloud SOTP lacks disclosed segment profit and capital.
Revised scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | Revenue | GM | EV/GP | Net cash | Shares | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | $4.0B | 38% | 7.0x | $2.0B | 340M | $37.18 | -82.3% |
| Base | 50% | $6.0B | 46% | 10.0x | $3.0B | 330M | $92.73 | -55.8% |
| Bull | 20% | $8.0B | 52% | 13.0x | $4.0B | 320M | $181.50 | -13.5% |
Weighted scorecard
| Pillar | Weight | Old | New |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30% | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Management Quality | 15% | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15% | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 30% | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 10% | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Conviction | 5.315 | 4.865 |
Only Valuation and Rule R2 Risk move. The pass band and no position sizing remain unchanged.
Primary financial evidence
| Period | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | OCF | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | $290.3M | $122.7M | $-101.4M | $452.0M | $23.4M | $428.5M |
| FY2025 | $510.0M | $199.1M | $-145.9M | $-10.1M | $382.7M | $-392.8M |
| H1 2025 | $202.8M | $73.7M | $-85.7M | $-123.8M | $185.1M | $-308.9M |
| H1 2026 | $373.5M | $111.7M | $-492.3M | $-47.5M | $548.9M | $-596.4M |
| TTM 2026-06-30 | $680.7M | $237.1M | $-552.5M | $66.3M | $746.5M | $-680.2M |
Downloads
Revised initial assessment
Download
Deep teaching report
Download
Old versus new
Download
Formula driven dashboard
Download
Verified workspace
Download
Revision manifest
Download
Original initial assessment
Download
Original deep teaching report
Download
Original dashboard
Download
Original workspace
Download